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There’s really no chance that Sweden’s Robin Soderling upsets world No. 1 and U.S. Open five-time champion Roger Federer in tonight’s quarterfinal action, is there?

Probably not, and Federer is a massive -2500 favorite on WagerWeb.com. I’d like to give you a reason to put down some money on Soderling at +750, but he has never beaten Federer in 11 tries. They have met three times this year, with Federer winning each in straight sets. However,  none of those matches were on hardcourts — but Federer is 5-0 against Soderling on that surface even though it’s Soderling’s best surface.

The 15-time Grand Slam champion advanced to the quarters on Monday, hammering Tommy Robredo 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 for his ninth victory in nine attempts over the Spaniard – it was his 38th straight victory overall at this tournament. This will be his third straight Grand Slam clash against Soderling, whom he routed in the French Open final and the fourth round of Wimbledon.

The good news for Soderling, seeded 12th, is that he continues to play well, eliminating a tough third-round opponent in Sam Querrey. He was up, two sets to one, against eighth-seeded Nikolay Davydenko, who retired because of injury. Soderling has a big serve, powerful forehand and is not afraid to finish points at the net. If Soderling can serve well and keep the ball to Federer’s backhand side, he has a very outside shot.

His win streak against the Swede stretches back five years, but Federer says Soderling, a former top junior who has struggled to fulfill his potential on the senior stage, is a changed player this year.

“He has become mentally and physically stronger. And then he knows the game better today than he used to,” Federer said. “These are already three amazing improvements. That’s what makes him a great player today.”

The match is expected to start at around 9 p.m. Eastern time. The winner faces the winner of Novak Djokovic and Fernando Verdasco.

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