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If you go by recent trends, Tiger Woods will not win the PGA Championship this week at Hazeltine outside of Minneapolis.

Oh, sure, Tiger is the overwhelming WagerWeb.com favorite to win at +140. And Tiger has won on the PGA Tour the past two weeks.

But do you realize that Tiger also won in his final tournament (but not the week before as this time) before the season’s previous three majors? Yet Woods hasn’t finished in the top five in any of the majors so far. In fact, he missed the cut at the British Open. It was only the second time in 13 years as a professional that Woods missed a cut at a major and the other, the 2006 U.S. Open, came after the death of his father.

Thus this major takes on added importance for Tiger, who puts all the importance on breaking Jack Nicklaus’ record of major titles. A season without a major, even though Tiger is leading the PGA Tour in wins, money, etc., would be considered a failure.

It all will come down to putting. Tiger has taken a full two putts more per round in majors this year than he has in regular tournaments.

“I feel as if I made some pretty good strides since the British Open,” Woods said this week. “I think that was evident the way I was hitting the golf ball last week (in winning the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational). I really hit it good last week, and hopefully I can improve on that and carry that over into this week.”

Woods, at 33, will play his 50th major this week having won 14 of them. By way of comparison, at the same stage in his career, Nicklaus, who holds the record with 18, had 12.

Tiger is trying to become the third man to win five PGA Championships, joining Walter Hagen and Nicklaus. Woods won this event in 2006 and 2007, but didn’t compete in 2008 after undergoing knee surgery Hazeltine, the longest course in major championship history at 7,674 yards (319 yards longer than the 2002 PGA), favors big hitters and has three par-5s at more than 600 yards. Woods, of course, feasts on par-5s. And remember, too, that the last time a major was held here, the 2002 PGA, Woods finished runner-up to Rich Beem.

Beem, by the way, hasn’t won since that victory.

“Everything back in 2002 after this championship really changed my life,” he said. “It was fast and furious. To be honest I wasn’t prepared for it. And I think it took its toll.”

If you must bet on someone other than Tiger, look at Steve Stricker (+3300 on WagerWeb.com). He has won twice this year, has seven top-10 finishes, and is No. 2 in FedExCup points. He tied for sixth at the Masters, 23rd at the U.S. Open. His best PGA Championship finish was second in 1998.

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