Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, Game 4 (Nuggets lead 3-0)
How likely are the Denver Nuggets to sweep out the Dallas Mavericks tonight in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals?
Since the NBA changed the first round to a best of seven in 2003, teams up 3-0 have successfully completed the sweep 15 out of 18 times and are 12-5-1 against the spread, so reports Covers.com. Not to mention that Denver is 7-0 against Dallas this year, or that Dallas has just two losses at home since Valentine’s Day, and that both have come to Denver.
Yet oddsmakers on WagerWeb.com list the Mavericks as 2-point favorites to extend this series.
Frankly, this series should be 2-1, not 3-0. On Saturday, Dallas led by four with 30 second left but lost on a Carmelo Anthony 3-pointer when the refs didn’t call what was an obvious foul by Mavs guard Antoine Wright as he tried to grab Anthony before he shot. The NBA even admitted afterward that the refs blew it, but that does no good for Dallas now. The Mavs attacked the basket in Game 3, resulting in 49 free throws. They committed just 10 turnovers and limited Denver to 42 percent shooting. If they can manage those numbers again, they will win tonight.
That game Saturday, however, was just the second spread of less than double digits for Denver in these playoffs, and the Nuggets join the Cavs as being unbeaten against the spread in the postseason.
A win tonight gets the Nuggets into the conference finals for the first time since 1985. And it might be the final game of Jason Kidd’s Mavericks career as he is an unrestricted free agent.
In the first round, the Nuggets closed out the New Orleans Hornets on the first try, in Game 5. Guard Chauncey Billups insists the Nuggets will play with the intensity needed to end the series.
“We’re going to be aggressive,” he said. “We’re going to fight extremely hard in the game. We know that they are going to fight extremely hard.”
No team has ever rallied from a 3-0 series deficit to win an NBA playoff series. In fact, more than 60 percent of the series that have started 3-0 have ended in Game 4.
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