Panthers (8-3) at Packers (5-6)
That Green Bay Packers defense laid a big egg on Monday night, and now the Pack are on a short week and facing a two-game deficit in the NFC North (behind either Minnesota or Chicago) if they don’t beat Carolina on Sunday.
Green Bay is a 3-point favorite on WagerWeb.com.
The formula for Green Bay seems simple: Give the ball to Ryan Grant, especially because it will be rather cold on Sunday. When Grant has at least 19 carries, the Packers have a 9-1 record. In the Packers’ five victories, RB Ryan Grant is averaging 23.2 rushes per game, but in the team’s six losses, he has carried the ball an average of just 16.7 times. Grant, who has run for 837 yards on 216 carries this season, gained 88 yards on 20 attempts in last season’s win over the Panthers. He has rushed for 250 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games at Lambeau.
Meanwhile, the Panther run defense has been gouged in the past three weeks by Oakland, Detroit and Atlanta, giving up 410 yards total.
The Pack can score, no doubt. Aaron Rodgers has directed an offense that ranks fifth in the NFL in scoring at 27.5 points a game. Rodgers has passed for an average of 263.3 yards a game and completed 63.5 percent of his passes, with 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He has passed for more than 300 yards three times, and has six games with a quarterback rating of more than 100.
Carolina is a month-long first-quarter funk. Dating back to Oct. 26 against Arizona, the Panthers have been outscored 20-7, outgained 463 yards to 76 and almost tripled in time of possession (43:14 to 16:46). In last Sunday’s loss to Atlanta, the Panthers had no first downs in the first quarter for the second consecutive week and were outgained 162-0 by the Falcons, who jumped to a 17-0 lead. Yet there the Panthers sit in first place in the NFC South.
“You want to start a whole lot quicker, there’s not doubt about it,” said QB Jake Delhomme, who is good to go after suffering a deep cut on his elbow last week.
The 45 points allowed to Atlanta last week were the most allowed by Carolina since John Fox took over in 2002. In just two weeks, the Panthers have fallen from eighth to 11th in total defense, and from fourth to ninth in passing yards per game.
Of course, the 51 points the Packers allowed on Monday night was the most points allowed by Green Bay since a 51-21 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sept. 21, 1980.
On the bright side for Carolina, RB DeAngelo Williams has rushed for more than 100 yards in four straight games, averaging 117 yards during that span. Steve Smith caught eight passes for a season-high 168 yards against Atlanta, but has just 13 receptions for 188 yards and no TDs in four career games vs. Green Bay.
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