NFL Week 13 odds: Indianapolis at Detroit
The Colts look to continue their improbable playoff push Sunday and officially end the Lions’ chances of returning to the postseason. The Colts will go for their sixth victory in seven games while the Lions try to avoid a fourth straight loss.
The Colts are 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer and their average margin of victory (6.1) is the lowest of the 10 NFL teams with at least seven victories. Indianapolis’ minus-14 turnover margin is the league’s third-worst.
Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck was sacked four times in Sunday’s win over Buffalo, which bumps his season total to 26. At this pace, he would finish with 38 sacks taken.
The Colts expect to get cornerback Vontae Davis back from a knee sprain that has kept him out of the lineup for four games. Since he’s been gone, the other starting cornerback, Jerraud Powers, suffered a season-ending toe injury against Miami on Nov. 4.
The Lions (4-7) haven’t played well in close games — all their losses are by 10 points or fewer — and they’re on the verge of losing four straight for the first time since a five-game skid Nov. 7-Dec. 5, 2010.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford has the NFL’s top pass offense at 312.5 yards per game, but perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Calvin Johnson commands the most attention. His 1,257 receiving yards lead the league. About a quarter of Stafford’s 296 completions have gone to Johnson, a speedy 6-foot-5 target who can do it all. But Johnson’s touchdown count is down. After 16 scores last year, he has four this season. Stafford has completed 60 percent of his passes for 3,429 yards, with 14 TDs and 10 interceptions.
The Lions have been inconsistent defending the run (123 yards per game) and were gashed for 205 yards (7.3 yards per attempt) in their Thanksgiving Day loss to Houston. The Colts don’t field a ball carrier like Houston’s Arian Foster, and making Indianapolis one-dimensional could be achieved out of Detroit’s base 4-3 front. The Colts’ offensive line deficiencies could be exposed this week as the Lions’ defensive line matches up well in the trenches.
WAGERWEB.COM OPENING LINE: Lions -4.5 (51) Check out current lines
COLTS NOTES: QB Andrew Luck’s 7 wins are tied for most by rookie QB who was drafted No. 1 overall since 1970 merger (Sam Bradford, 2010). Luck has passed for 3,205 yards, most by rookie QB in NFL history through his team’s 1st 11 games. Has 5 300-yard passing games, most by rookie all-time. Leads AFC QBs in rush yards (183) & rush TDs (5) … For career, RB Donald Brown averages 5 yards per carry on road against NFC … WR Reggie Wayne (1,105) needs 95 receiving yards to reach 1,200 for 6th time in career. Wayne (946) needs 6 receptions to surpass Andre Reed (951) for 10th-most in NFL annals. Had 7 catches for 104 yards in last game vs. Det. WR T.Y. Hilton has 4 TDs in past 2 games (3 TD receptions, 1 PR-TD). Has 3 100-yard receiving games, most among NFL rookies … LB Robert Mathis has 7 sacks in 7 games in ’12. Has 5 sacks in past 4 vs. NFC. LB Jerrell Freeman leads team with 101 tackles … S Tom Zbikowski posted 1st INT of season last week.
LIONS NOTES: In past 2 seasons, QB Matthew Stafford is 5-2 vs. AFC with 2,329 yards (332.7 per game), 17 TDs vs. 1 INT & 106.6 rating. When he has 105 rating, Lions are 10-0. Had 441 yards last week, his 4th career 400-yard game … RB Mikel Leshoure had TD last week & has 5 rush TDs in past 4. RB Joique Bell aims for 3rd in row vs. AFC with rush TD … WR Calvin Johnson aims for 5th consecutive 100-yard game. In past 4, has 32 catches for 619 yards (154.8 per game) & 3 TDs. In past 7 vs. AFC, has 47 catches for 903 yards (129 per game) & 8 TDs. Aims for 7th in row vs. AFC with 100 rec. yards. In only meeting, had 9 catches for 110 yards & TD (33 yards). Leads NFL with 1,257 rec. yards. Since 2011, has 2,938 rec. yards, most in NFL, & his 108.8 yards per game avg. during span ranks 1st. Since 2008, has 49 rec. TD, most in NFL. Led NFL with 619 rec. yards in November. Since 2010, TE Brandon Pettigrew is 3rd among NFL TEs with 208 rec. Rookie WR Ryan Broyles had career-high 126 yards (6 catches) last week. WR Mike Thomas had TD last week … DE Cliff Avril has 3 sacks & FF in past 2. Is 1 of 2 in NFL with 18 sacks (18.5) & 7 FFs (7) since 2011. DT Nick Fairley has 3 sacks in past 3 games.
WAGERWEB.COM TRENDS: Colts are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December. Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Lions are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Lions are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.