NFL Week 11 odds: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos started their hot streak at the expense of the San Diego Chargers back on Oct. 15, while San Diego hasn’t been the same since blowing an unthinkable 24-0 halftime lead. Should the Broncos win again Sunday, the AFC West is all but in the bag for Peyton Manning and Co.
In that first meeting, Manning threw three touchdown passes in the second half and Tony Carter and Chris Harris scored off turnovers by Philip Rivers as the Broncos overcame that 24-0 halftime deficit to win 35-24. Manning was 13 of 14 for 167 yards in the second half. It tied for the fourth-biggest regular-season comeback in NFL history.
Rivers was intercepted four times — three in the fourth quarter — and lost two fumbles. The four pickoffs and six turnovers were both career-highs. The Broncos seemed finished after an awful first half in which Manning served up an 80-yard interception return for a touchdown by Quentin Jammer and two special teams fumbles led to 10 points for the Chargers. The Broncos became the first team in NFL history to win by double digits after trailing by at least 24.
Denver has won three straight since that game, while San Diego has lost two of three.
Manning ranks second in the AFC with 2,705 passing yards this season. With 295 passing yards on Sunday against San Diego, Manning would register his 14th season with at least 3,000 passing yards, surpassing Hall of Famer Dan Marino for the second-most such seasons in NFL
history. Brett Favre holds the record with 18 seasons with at least 3,000 passing yards. Manning also has completed 70 percent of his passes in an NFL-record six straight games.
Broncos linebacker Von Miller has 21.5 sacks and will play in his 25th career game on Sunday. With two sacks this weekend, Miller can tie 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith (23.5), who played in his 25th game last week, for the second-most sacks through a player’s first 25 games since 1982.
Rivers will need to be on his game against the Broncos. Owner of the NFL’s fourth-highest completion percentage (68.0%), Rivers has posted solid numbers at Sports Authority Field over his career. In six starts he’s completed 109 of 165 (66.1%) for 1,577 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions for a 102.5 QB rating. Rivers’ top target this season has been Malcom Floyd, who leads the Chargers with 39 catches and 572 receiving yards on the season and is tied for second with three touchdown catches. Antonio Gates (35 catches for 298 yards), who needs one touchdown catch to equal Lance Alworth’s team record of 81, leads the Bolts with four touchdown catches. Two of his touchdowns came in this year’s earlier meeting with the Broncos.
Denver has arguably the most dynamic pass rush in the NFL as it leads the league in sacks with 31. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is doing an excellent job of designing blitz packages with Miller and DE Elvis Dumervil coming off the edge, although Dumervil’s status will be in question for this game. The Chargers have been among the league’s worst when it comes to getting their quarterback sacked and throwing interceptions. Look for more two-tight end sets as the Chargers do whatever it takes to keep Rivers upright.
WAGERWEB.COM ODDS: Broncos -8.5 (48.5)
CHARGERS NOTES: Seek 4th consecutive win at Den. … For career, QB Philip Rivers is 5-1 at Den. Rivers posted 28th career 300-yard passing game last week. Aims for 3rd straight game with 100 passer rating … RB Ryan Mathews has rushed for 100 yards in 3 of 4 career games vs. Broncos (120, 125, 137). RB Ronnie Brown is tied for 2nd among NFL RBs with 35 catches in ’12 … TE Antonio Gates (80) trails only HOFer Lance Alworth (81) for most rec TDs in team history. Aims for 3rd straight game with TD rec. Had 2 TD catches in last game vs. Den. In past 2 at Den., WR Malcom Floyd has 5 receptions for 157 yards (31.4 avg.) with TD. WR Danario Alexander had career-best 134 receiving yards last week, incl. 80-yard TD catch … LB Shaun Phillips (65) has 3rd-most sacks by Charger (Leslie O’NEAL, 105.5; Lee Williams, 65.5) … CB Quentin Jammer had 80-yard INT-return TD in last meeting vs. Den … Since ’11, S Eric Weddle has 9 INTs, best in AFC.
BRONCOS NOTES: Club aims for 5th consecutive win. Broncos have totaled 115 points in 4th quarter of games in ’12, 2nd-most in NFL … In 4 home games in 2012, QB Peyton Manning has 1,226 passing yards with 10 TDs vs. 0 INTs & 115.3 passer rating. Registered 69th career game with 300 passing yards last week, most in NFL history … RB Willis McGahee has 100 rush yards in 2 of past 3 vs. SD (125, 117) … WR Demaryius Thomas has 100 receiving yards in 3 of 4 home games in ’12 (110, 103, 137). WR Eric Decker has 7 TD rec. in past 6 games. WR Brandon Stokley posted 4th TD catch of season last week … Since entering NFL in ’11, LB Von Miller has 21.5 sacks, most in AFC. Has 4 sacks in past 2 games … CB Chris Harris had 2 INTs, incl. 46-yard INT-return TD in last game vs. SD. CB Tony Carter had 40-yard INT-return TD last week. Had INT & FR in last game against Chargers … KR Trindon Holliday had 76-yard PR-TD last week.
WAGERWEB.COM TRENDS: Chargers are 4-0-4 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Denver. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver. Chargers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Favorite is 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.