New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0) :WagerWeb Entertainment

New England Patriots (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (8-0)

14 November 2009 128 views No Comment

The NFL’s most anticipated game of the year is upon us Sunday night when the Patriots visit the Colts in what could well be an AFC Championship Game preview. However, the Colts have had the upper hand on the Pats of late, winning four of the past five in this rivalry.

This will be first meeting between the two clubs for new Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell and the fourth straight trip to Indianapolis for the Patriots. It’s the 18th time Peyton Manning faces New England and the 10th meeting against Indy for Tom Brady, who missed last year’s Colts win. The TV networks love this matchup, as it’s the seventh prime-time meeting (regular season and playoffs) between the two since 2003. Indianapolis has won 17 consecutive regular-season games and could threaten New England’s record of 21 in a row if the Colts win Sunday.

Brady has passed for at least 300 yards in the past three games, and he could have a huge night against a banged-up Indy defense missing several starters, none more important than safety Bob Sanders. New England has won 14 straight and is 25-2 all-time when Brady throws for 300 yards or more. Brady has never lost a regular-season matchup with Manning in Indianapolis (3-0 record).

The Colts were fortunate to escape Houston’s upset bid last week, as the Texans missed a very makeable field goal as time expired that would have sent the game into OT. New England beat Miami 27-17 last week.

With so many guys hurt, Indy needs defensive end Dwight Freeney to be at his best, and he has been. Freeney has recorded sacks in nine straight games, one short of the NFL record. He will lineup against a rookie tackle this week in Sebastian Vollmer, as starter Matt Light is likely out again. However, Vollmer has played very well since Light went out in Week 5.

The red zone has been a problem for New England this year. With 15 touchdowns in 34 trips into the red zone, the Pats are one of the worst red zone teams in the league, too often settling for field goals.

Indianapolis has allowed just 12 points off turnovers in 2009 — fewest in football. The Patriots are almost as good, allowing 17 points off turnovers this season (4th in the NFL).

WAGERWEB.COM ODDS

Indianapolis -3 (Colts are -135 on the money line); over/under: 49.5

APPROXIMATE PUBLIC LEAN

59 percent on the Patriots

INJURY REPORT

PATRIOTS: OUT: DE Jarvis Green (knee), WR Brandon Tate (knee), RB Fred Taylor (ankle). DOUBTFUL: T Matt Light (knee). QUESTIONABLE: LB Eric Alexander (groin), TE Chris Baker (shoulder), LB Tully Banta-Cain (groin), DT Ron Brace (ankle), WR Julian Edelman (forearm), C Dan Koppen (knee), S Brandon Meriweather (foot), RB Sammy Morris (knee), S James Sanders (groin), DT Ty Warren (ankle). PROBABLE: QB Tom Brady (right shoulder), CB Shawn Springs (knee), TE Benjamin Watson (back). COLTS: OUT: WR Anthony Gonzalez (knee), CB Kelvin Hayden (knee), K Adam Vinatieri (right knee). QUESTIONABLE: QB Jim Sorgi (right shoulder).

TEAM RANKINGS
PATRIOTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (2), RUSH (16), PASS (2)
PATRIOTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (7), RUSH (20), PASS (4)
COLTS OFFENSE — OVERALL (4), RUSH (29), PASS (1)
COLTS DEFENSE — OVERALL (8), RUSH (14), PASS (9)

TRENDS

* Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.

* Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

* Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.

* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

* Patriots are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

* Patriots are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.

* Patriots are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

* Patriots are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.

* Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

* Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.