Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5) :WagerWeb Entertainment

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)

14 November 2009 81 views No Comment

If the Carolina Panthers have any hope of reaching the playoffs, then Sunday’s game with NFC South foe Atlanta is basically a must-win. A loss puts the Panthers three games behind Atlanta in the wild-card chase and gives the Falcons the head-to-head tiebreaker, but a win obviously moves Carolina just a game back and gets the Panthers a season split in this series.

In that Week 2 28-20 Atlanta win, Matt Ryan threw career-high three TDs, and Carolina’s comeback bid ended with late Jake Delhomme interception.

Look for a big day from the Falcons’ Michael Turner. He was held under 100 yards in five of his first six games, but over the last two weeks has 323 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Panthers’ run defense is No. 23 in the NFL. Turner rushed for over 100 yards in both games against the Panthers last year. One concern for Atlanta is that Matt Ryan has thrown at least one pick in five games in a row. When Ryan has a 100-plus passer rating, the Falcons are 8-0.

DeAngelo Williams ran for 149 yards last Sunday in the Panthers’ loss to the Saints and now has three 100-yard performances in his last four contests. Williams has 548 yards and five TDs on the ground in his last four games (220 rush yards and 2 TDs in his first four games of 2009). But Williams was held out of practice Friday, and is listed as questionable. Williams, who also missed Wednesday’s practice with what coach John Fox described as a “tweaked knee,” did some limited work Thursday. Williams hasn’t missed a game since 2006 and will be a game-time call. Obviously if he sits, that’s a huge break for Atlanta. Backup RB Jonathan Stewart also is listed as questionable, but it’s thought he will play after practicing Thursday and Friday. The Panthers have 40 rushes of 10+ yards in 2009 — most of any team in football. Carolina leads the NFC by averaging 153 rushing yards per game.

WAGERWEB.COM ODDS

Falcons -1.5 (Atlanta is -125 on the money line); over/under: 43.5

APPROXIMATE PUBLIC LEAN

72 percent on the Falcons

INJURY REPORT

FALCONS: QUESTIONABLE: T Sam Baker (ankle), DE Kroy Biermann (neck), WR Brian Finneran (knee), DT Thomas Johnson (calf), RB Jerious Norwood (hip), RB Jason Snelling (hamstring), WR Roddy White (knee). PROBABLE: LB Curtis Lofton (knee, ankle). PANTHERS: DOUBTFUL: S Charles Godfrey (ankle), RB Brad Hoover (ankle). QUESTIONABLE: RB Tony Fiammetta (concussion), WR Muhsin Muhammad (knee), TE Dante Rosario (knee), RB Jonathan Stewart (Achilles), RB DeAngelo Williams (knee). PROBABLE: K John Kasay (left groin), DE Julius Peppers (hand).

TEAM RANKINGS
FALCONS OFFENSE — OVERALL (16), RUSH (11), PASS (19)
FALCONS DEFENSE — OVERALL (24), RUSH (24), PASS (27)
PANTHERS OFFENSE — OVERALL (21), RUSH (3), PASS (24)
PANTHERS DEFENSE — OVERALL (9), RUSH (23), PASS (6)

TRENDS

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.

* Falcons are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.

* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

* Falcons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 10.

* Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

* Falcons are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on grass.

* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.