AFC wild-card round: Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at New England Patriots (10-6)
The Baltimore – New England matchup is the only one of this weekend’s four playoff games that isn’t a rematch of Week 17 – although the Pats did beat the Ravens 27-21 in Week 4 in Foxboro.
Baltimore did outgain the Pats that day and hold New England to just four third-down conversions, but nine penalties (two questionable ones for roughing Tom Brady), two turnovers and a dropped Mark Clayton pass on fourth down late in the game did the Ravens in that day.
And the Pats had receiver Wes Welker that day, the NFL’s leading receiver. But Welker tore ligaments in his knee in the regular-season finale against Houston and will miss the playoffs – a crusher to New England’s offense. Brady, for example, has a completion percentage that’s more than 11 points higher when Welker is in the lineup this season (he missed basically all of Week 17 and Weeks 2 and 3 with an injury). Rookie Julian Edelman will start for Welker.
Baltimore’s offensive focus is Ray Rice, whose totals of 1,329 rushing yards and 702 yards on 78 pass receptions made him the second-most productive combined run-catch player in the NFL.
The Pats have never lost to the Ravens (5-0) although they’ve never met in the playoffs. Brady has an 81.5 passer rating in three games against the Ravens, throwing for 687 yards and three TDs with one interception, and his 54.0 completion percentage against them is his lowest versus any opponent.
New England hasn’t dropped a home playoff game since 1978 and has won 23 home games in a row with Brady starting. But the Ravens also won two road games as a wild card in last year’s playoffs. In fact, every time the Ravens have entered the playoffs as a wild card in their history, they’ve won at least one game.
New England’s defense should get a boost as nose tackle Vince Wilfork is expected to return after missing three games with a foot injury. And defensive end Ty Warren should be back after missing two full games and most of a third with ankle injury. Without the duo, the Patriots allowed 144 yards rushing last Sunday in a loss to Houston, which has one of the NFL’s worst rushing attacks. The Ravens’ rushing offense is ranked fifth in the league.
Patriots -3 (Ravens +165 on money line); over/under: 43
APPROXIMATE PUBLIC LEAN
61 percent on New England
INJURY REPORT
RAVENS: PROBABLE: QB Joe Flacco (hip), LB Tavares Gooden (groin), TE Todd Heap (neck), LB Jarret Johnson (back), C Matt Katula (elbow), WR Derrick Mason (knee), NT Haloti Ngata (ankle), S Marcus Paschal (back), DT Trevor Pryce (head), S Ed Reed (groin), G Marshal Yanda (knee), S Tom Zbikowski (neck). PATRIOTS: QUESTIONABLE: C Dan Connolly (ankle). PROBABLE: QB Tom Brady (right shoulder, right finger, rib), WR Julian Edelman (forearm), DE Jarvis Green (knee), T Nick Kaczur (shoulder), WR Randy Moss (not injury related), CB Shawn Springs (knee), DT Ty Warren (ankle), TE Benjamin Watson (knee), DT Vince Wilfork (foot).
TEAM RANKINGS
Ravens Offense – Overall (13), Rush (5), Pass (18)
Ravens Defense – Overall (3), Rush (5), Pass (8t)
Patriots Offense – Overall (3), Rush (12), Pass (3)
Patriots Defense – Overall (11), Rush (13), Pass (12)
TRENDS
* Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
* Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
* Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
* Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
* Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
* Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
* Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss.
* Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Patriots are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Patriots are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
* Patriots are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
* Patriots are 0-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
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