Friday college football odds: Nevada at Air Force

It’s rather hard to believe, but Friday night’s game between Nevada and Air Force is the first-ever meeting between the schools and the loser can likely kiss a shot at the Mountain West Conference title goodbye. Nevada is a 3-point favorite on WagerWeb.com.

The Wolfpack enter off a crushing 39-38 overtime loss to San Diego State that dropped them out of the MWC lead. After Nevada (6-2, 3-1 Mountain West) went up 38-31 in overtime on a 3-yard TD pass from Cody Fajardo to Brandon Wimberly, the Aztecs needed two plays to pull to within 38-37, scoring on a 21-yard pass from Dingwell to Gavin Escobar. The Aztecs elected to go for the win and Dingwell sealed it with a pass to Rob Andrews in the corner of the end zone for the successful two-point conversion.

Fajardo completed 29 of 40 passes for 304 yards and three touchdowns for Nevada. Two of the touchdowns were to Wimberly, who finished with 10 catches for 132 yards. Fajardo also rushed for a touchdown. Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson, the nation’s leading rusher (156.0 ypg), finished with 108 yards on 32 carries, and a 1-yard touchdown run that put Nevada up 31-21 with 7:46 left in the game.

Nevada’s two losses are by a combined two points and both came at home. This is the first time in the history of Nevada football (since 1898) that Nevada lost two one-point games at home ..

Air Force beat New Mexico 28-23 last week. The Falcons won despite losing Cody Getz, the nation’s second-leading rusher, on their first snap when he aggravated a sprained left ankle. He is doubtful for Friday. They ended up rushing for 291 yards to New Mexico’s 409. Air Force (4-3, 3-1) overcame Kasey Carrier’s Mountain West Conference-record 338 yards rushing and three touchdowns.

The Wolf Pack will take on a pretty vulnerable Falcons’ run defense. Air Force ranks 108th in run defense, allowing 222 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. In the win over New Mexico, the Falcons allowed 409 rushing yards, including 338 to Kasey Carrier. Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson leads the NCAA in rushing with 1,248 yards. Air Force, which uses the triple-option, has one of the nation’s top run game, too. The Falcons average 352.7 yards per game, the second-best mark nationally.

WagerWeb.com trends: Wolf Pack are 0-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wolf Pack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Wolf Pack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

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