Villanova will beat North Carolina if …
The last time the Villanova Wildcats reached the Final Four (1985), they ended up pulling one of the great upsets in NCAA history by stunning Patrick Ewing and Georgetown.
Beating the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday in the Final Four in Detroit won’t quite be that mammoth of an upset, but few people give the Wildcats, at No. 3 the lowest-seeded Final Four team, much of a chance against the incredibly deep Heels, who are 7-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.
But not many can argue that Villanova’s depth of guards, led by Scottie Reynolds, is better than that of Carolina’s. So assuming a very slight edge to the Wildcats there, even as good as UNC’s Ty Lawson is, that means this one could well come down to the frontcourt, and that’s where Villanova’s key player for Saturday, Dante Cunningham, will be playing.
While Villanova has been outrebounding teams in this NCAA Tournament, the Cats haven’t seen a front line like the Heels’ Tyler Hansbrough, Deon Thompson and Ed Davis. Frankly, Cunningham is Nova’s only real frontcourt presence, with Shane Clark, Antonio Pena and Dwayne Anderson helping at times.
Cunningham led Villanova in scoring (16.2 ppg) and rebounding (7.4) this season and was named the Most Improved Player in the Big East; he entered this season with a career points per game average of just 7.1.
“One of the biggest reasons we’re [in the Final Four],” said Reynolds, “is because Dante stepped up this season. We wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for him.”
Cunningham will draw the assignment on Hansbrough, who struggled a bit against Blake Griffin and Oklahoma but still is one of the top two or three players in the country. If Cunningham gets into foul trouble, it’s probably game over – although he expects plenty of help in the post.
“With our team and the way we play and commit, we switch so many times during the game, all of our forwards switch,” Cunningham said. “I think a lot of different guys are going to match up with him.”
But if Cunningham can’t handle Hansbrough mostly one-on-one and the defense has to sag down to help, that’s when the Heels get open perimeter shots and kill you.
“He has so much intensity,” Cunningham said of Hansbrough. “He’s always around the ball. He’s continuously pushing and rebounding and getting position.”
On offense, Cunningham has to keep hitting that 15-18 foot jumper he has been nailing all season, as that will open up the middle for all that Villanova penetration.
Villanova WagerWeb.com Trends
* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
* Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.
* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
* Wildcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
* Wildcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Wildcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
* Wildcats are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games as an underdog.
* Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.
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