Why North Carolina will beat Michigan State
The North Carolina Tar Heels should beat the Michigan State Spartans on Monday night, and they are 7.5-point favorites to do so on WagerWeb.com.
Even State coach Tom Izzo admits the Heels are a better team: “If we play good and they play good, we’re losing. That’s the way I look at it. I mean, I don’t look at that in the negative. They are the best team in the country.”
And there is no way Heels coach Roy Williams allows his players to get overconfident after having beaten State by 35 points earlier this season, also at Ford Field.
There also is a sense of finality to this game for the Heels’ Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. All those guys put the NBA off for a season to win the national title, and there’s no doubt all three will be headed to the Association next year (Hansbrough for sure, as he’s a senior; the other two are juniors).
“I’m not going to look at my career as a failure if we don’t win a national championship,” Hansbrough said Sunday.
As good as a story as Sparty has been in this tournament, the Heels have been dominant. Against Villanova in the Final Four, North Carolina got outrebounded by a team that plays four guards and still won by 14. The Tar Heels also made just 59.5 percent of their free throws. That’s 11 percent below their tournament average and 15.9 percent below their season average. And they still crushed an excellent team from the nation’s top conference.
The Tar Heels also are the first team since Duke in 2001 to reach the title game after beating their tournament opponents by at least double digits each time.
And, yes, MSU will have the “home court” tonight in Detroit, but do you think that bothers UNC? During the past two seasons, the Tar Heels have won 21 of 23 road games and 20 of 22 games on neutral courts.
Also, that 35-point win earlier might actually be a psychological edge for the Heels. For example, as good as a defender as MSU’s Travis Walton is (Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year), he was torched by Lawson for 17 points and eight assists in 28 minutes in the first meeting. Lawson might be unguardable right now as well as he is playing.
There’s also the fact that UNC is 4-0 all-time against Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament.
However, that 7.5-point line on WagerWeb.com might be too high, as in the last 10 years, only UConn in 1999 was favored by more in a championship game. The Huskies failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites against Duke.
So will the Heels win? Probably, and they do have more all-around talent. But that doesn’t mean they will cover.
North Carolina WagerWeb.com Trends
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
* Tar Heels are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
* Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
* Tar Heels are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games.
NCAA Basketball Betting at WagerWeb.com
