Tuesday NCAA: Michigan State (20-4) at Purdue (19-6)
The Big Ten regular season title is currently Michigan State’s to lose, and the Spartans can all but eliminate third-place Purdue from contention tonight when the two preseason conference favorites meet in West Lafayette.
The Boilermakers have opened as 2.5-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.
That Purdue is favored is a slight surprise, since Michigan State has won its first six league road games for the first time in school history and hasn’t lost against the spread. On the road in conference, MSU is averaging 71.3 points, led by Kalin Lucas at 19.2 ppg. MSU is dominating the glass, out-rebounding opponents by a +14.0 margin. The Spartans are also taking care of the ball, averaging just 12.3 turnovers per game.
In addition, State will get back second-leading scorer Raymar Morgan tonight. The forward has been dealing with an illness for a while, having sat out the past three games and being severely limited for a few before that. Morgan no doubt won’t have a lot of stamina tonight, however.
“I don’t know (how effective Morgan will be) because I don’t know what will happen on his first mishap, when his body tells him to drive and he forgets the ball or something,” MSU coach Tom Izzo said. “I’m hoping to 15 or maybe even 20 minutes. I can honestly tell you he could play 23 or 24 and he could play 10.”
The Spartans should be well-rested overall, having not played since last Tuesday’s win over Michigan. MSU has held each of its last three opponents to fewer than 50 points for the first time since holding its first six opponents of the 1951-52 season below that mark
Purdue is 12-2 at home this year and 38-14 against the Spartans all-time in games played in West Lafayette. MSU has won 14 of the last 20 games in the series. But the Boilermakers won the last meeting, 60-54 on Feb. 12, 2008, and have won four of the past five in the series at home.
Purdue ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring defense (57.8 ppg), while leading the conference in field-goal percentage defense (.373). The Boilers are 19-0 when allowing 64 or fewer points but have lost all six games when allowing at least 65. The Spartans are averaging a league-best 74.6 points.
The Boilermakers did get a key part back in Saturday’s win over Iowa as preseason conference player of the year Robbie Hummel returned to action for the first time since Jan. 31. The sophomore forward is likely to stay around 24 minutes a game for the time being as he deals with a stress fracture in his back. Coach Matt Painter hasn’t decided whether to start him or bring him off the bench. Hummel had 24 points and 11 rebounds in that last Purdue win over the Spartans.
WagerWeb.com Game Trends
* Spartans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Spartans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Spartans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
* Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
* Spartans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
* Spartans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
* Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
* Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Boilermakers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
* Boilermakers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.
* Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Boilermakers are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 vs. Big Ten.
* Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
* Boilermakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Purdue.
* Favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
* Spartans are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
NCAA Basketball Betting at WagerWeb.com
