Thursday NCAA: East Region semifinal – Villanova vs. Duke
Arguably the most even matchup of Thursday night’s Sweet 16 games is the one scheduled to be the finale when the East Region third-seeded Villanova Wildcats face the second-seeded Duke Blue Devils in Boston.
Duke has opened as a 2.5-point favorite on WagerWeb.com, the smallest odds among the four Thursday night games.
The Blue Devils seem to be peaking at the right time, having won 10 of their past 11 games. They crushed Binghamton in the first round by 24 points and then had to fight for a 74-69 victory over Texas in the second round. It helped that those games were in nearby Greensboro, N.C.
While Duke’s first two games were close to home, Villanova literally did get to play at home in Philly – Villanova was the only team in the bracket to play on one of its satellite home courts. The Wildcats struggled in the opener against American before pulling away for a 13-point win. But their second-round 20-point win over UCLA was one of the tournament’s most dominant performances. Villanova is in the Sweet 16 despite star guard Scottie Reynolds totaling just 19 points.
This game matches very similar teams. Neither team has much of a post game (neither has a regular taller than 6-foot-8) with both teams doing most of their damage from the perimeter.
“They are very similar in that they can score from all their positions,” Duke coach Krzyzewski said of Nova. “They like to drive. They give their players the ability to make plays.”
The teams’ scoring averages are near mirror-images (77.0 ppg for Villanova, 78.1 ppg for Duke), as are the defensive numbers (67.1 ppg for Villanova, 65.6 ppg for Duke).
Duke is led by Gerald Henderson (16.8 ppg), Kyle Singler (16.5), and John Scheyer (14.9). Henderson has been the most consistent Duke player this season. He scored a game-high 24 against Texas and probably is the key if the Blue Devils want their first tournament win against a top-4 seed since beating Arizona to win the 2001 national championship.
But the Wildcats shoot higher percentages from the field and the 3-point line than Duke — and allow lower percentages. And they might have the difference-maker inside in Dante Cunningham, a 6-foot-8-inch senior forward who is averaging 16.3 ppg and 7.3 rpg. He scored 25 in the first game and then 18 points to go along with 10 boards in the second-round win over UCLA.
Duke’s two main post defenders, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek struggled with fouls against Texas, so they could be in trouble against Cunningham.
The winner here plays the Pitt-Xavier winner on Saturday.
WagerWeb.com Trends
* Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
* Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
* Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
* Blue Devils are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East.
* Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
* Blue Devils are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
* Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
NCAA Basketball Betting at WagerWeb.com
