135th Derby: Pretenders, Possibles and Contenders
There have been many changes the past couple of weeks concerning who’s in and who’s out of America’s Race.
Injuries too their toll: Likely co-favorite Quality Road was derailed by a pair of quarter cracks on his right feet. Sore shins sidelined Square Eddie and a weak ankle did in promising Win Willy.
Then several horses that had enough graded stakes earnings to make the 20-horse field bowed out. Enter four 3-year-olds that were on the outside looking in a week before Wednesday’s post-position draw.
Twentieth qualifier Nowhere to Hide’s graded earnings of $55,000 is $110,000 less than what was banked last year by Denis of Cork, third to Big Brown.
In 2007, Imawildandcrazyguy got in with $104,000 and ran fourth behind Street Sense. A year earlier, $109,000 sent Flashy Bull to Churchill Downs where he finished 14th to Barbaro.
In ’05, Going Wild got in with $57,250, but ran 18th to Giacomo. A year earlier, $105,685 sent Pro Prado to Louisville where he finished 14th to Smarty Jones.
So let’s get it on, starting with Pretenders. I’m tossing out four for two reasons:
One-hit wonders seldom capture the Kentucky Derby and only three of the past 47 winners scored after failing to hit the board in their final prep. That’s two strikes against Join the Dane, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private, all 50-1 in the morning line.
I’m also bidding adios to a pair of single-race winners: Mr. Hot Stuff, who never raced on dirt in seven outings, and Summer Bird, whose three career starts were this year.
Goodbye to Mine That Bird, fourth in his final prep in his second trip over the dirt.
Horses that ran fifth in their only outing on the dirt join the crowd: Advice and Hold Me Back. So long Dubai-only horses that haven’t hit the board debuting on the Derby Trail in ’99: Desert Party and Regal Ransom.
On to the Possibles: There is an “if” or two concerning these five. Synthetic-only horses Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy have five victories and a second between them in routes, with the latter a length behind the former in the Santa Anita Derby.
Either could hit the board at Churchill Downs since their breeding is exceptional. However, neither has posted a triple-digit speed figure during their career.
Pioneer of the Nile, the early morning co-second choice at 4-1, breaks from post 16 that produced three winners since ’95. Chocolate Candy, 20-1, drew post 11, which has a long drought dating back to Brokers Tip in ’33.
West Side Bernie hit the board in two ’09 outings on the dirt and ran a big race in the Wood Memorial beaten only a length, but his last victory was in September at Turfway. Departing post 1 means he’ll likely encounter traffic since he rallies off the pace. Last winner from the rail was wire-to-wire winner Winning Colors in ’88.
Papa Clem and Musket Man captured their final prep, but not against the strongest of fields. The former drew post 7, which Street Sense won from two years ago. Musket Man breaks from post 2, which hasn’t tasted victory since ’78 Triple Crown champ Affirmed.
There are four major contenders that can win it all.
General Quarters at a generous 20-1 won two of his last three stakes this year impressively, staying close to the pace after a half-mile and exploding to the lead in the stretch. The hot Julien Leparoux climbs aboard for the first time. The son of Sky Mesa drew post 12, which hasn’t scored since Canonero II in ’71.
Dunkirk, at 4-1, posted triple-digit speed figures in his last two starts, both routes on dirt. The son of Unbridled’s Song didn’t run as a 2-year-old, but made the Top 5 on the list of most experts off three starts. His post 15 accounted for two victories since ’96. Edgar Prado, who was aboard Barbaro, gets the mount.
Larry Jones trainee Friesan Fire hasn’t run since taking the Louisiana Derby on March 14, defeating Papa Clem by 7 ¼ lengths. The son of A.P. Indy has been training well and zipped five furlongs in 57 4/5 on Monday.
That was a tick off Hard Spun’s final work in ’07 when he ran second to Street Sense. Jones also trained Hard Spun and rested him six weeks. Friesan Fire, 5-1, drew post 6, which last was successful in ’93 when Sea Hero surprised.
The horse to beat is I Want Revenge. First, he has tactical speed. Secondly, he posted triple-digit speed figures in his impressive Gotham and Wood Memorial triumphs. The son of Stephen Got Even whose granddad is A.P. Indy can even regress a bit and come out on top.
Naturally, he’s the favorite at 3-1. His post is 13, from which Smarty Jones won. The only knock: Only three favorites have succeeded since ’79.
But I have faith in I Want Revenge and shall use him mostly on top in the exotics. May the wagering force be with you.
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